Revisiting Khabib vs. Tibau

Did the judges get it right?

With an official record of 28 wins and 0 losses, Khabib Nurmagomedov is celebrated today as a titan of mythical proportions, a type that is almost never encountered in the young sport of MMA. The casual fan imagines the Dagestani champion as an insurmountable challenge for his opponents who has never been bested and might never be truly challenged. Yet for all the praise and awe that Khabib receives from the hardcore MMA community, the dedicated fans of the sport are all too-familiar with that one fight where the grappler’s takedowns were completely thwarted and he was statistically outstruck and outwrestled by a bigger, stronger man from Brazil who would ultimately become a journeyman.

In July of 2012, Glieason Tibau lost a decision against Khabib Nurmagomedov that was controversial to say the least. Figthmetric showed that Tibau landed more total and significant strikes than Khabib over the course of 3 rounds and stuffed 13 of his opponent’s takedowns while scoring 1 of his own. The majority of media scorecards went in favor of Tibau. Public fan polling showed that most people in general were confused by the judges decision.

fightmetric decision of Khabib vs Tibau

media scores of Khabib vs Tibau

After acknowledging that statistics and public sentiment went in favor of Khabib, one must wonder how the judges scored it differently. The typical response from the few fans who support the decision as rightful point to the official scoring criteria that takes into account:

  • Effective Striking/Grappling - "Legal blows that have immediate or cumulative impact with the potential to contribute towards the end of the match with the IMMEDIATE weighing in more heavily than the cumulative impact. Successful execution of takedowns, submission attempts, reversals and the achievement of advantageous positions that produce immediate or cumulative impact with the potential to contribute to the end of the match, with the IMMEDIATE weighing more heavily than the cumulative impact."
  • Effective Aggressiveness - "Aggressively making attempts to finish the fight. The key term is 'effective'. Chasing after an opponent with no effective result or impact should not render in the judges’ assessments."
  • Fighting Area (Octagon) Control - "Fighting area control is assessed by determining who is dictating the pace, place and position of the match."

On these accounts, it’s easy to understand how Khabib checks the box for octagon control, as he commanded much of the pace, place, and position of the match. Tibau was mostly on the defensive in a fight that looked very even- spending most of his time defending takedowns, being pressed against the cage, and being on the backfoot. However, effective striking/grappling and and effective aggressiveness did not go in his favor. Although he was the busier fighter, most of his output was not effective and Tibau had a slight statistical edge against Khabib in both striking and grappling.

How similar fights were scored The type of fight that Khabib/Tibau is similar to Arlovski/Schaub and many fights of Randy Couture. The results range all over the place:

  • Schaub pressed Arlovski against the cage for most of their contest in a lack-luster fight, but was not awarded with a victory.
  • On the other hand, Couture was given the nod against Brandon Vera in a fight where he was seriously hurt several times simply from cage-pressing Vera for most of the fight.
  • We also have the case of Shogun losing against Machida in their first meeting despite our striking him and cage-pressing him for 5 rounds with a steady pace of clinch-strikes.

Tibau’s steroid history

The justice of injustice of the decision loss that Tibau took home against Khabib is often weighed against his steroid past. In November of 2015, 3 years after fighting Khabib, Tibau failed a drug test for EPO. Based on the Brazilian’s incredible physique and impressive cardio that rarely goes hand-in-hand with large muscle mass, many fans believe that it’s obvious that Tibau has taken steroids for much of his career, which included his fight with Khabib.

In Conclusion

We don’t know if Tibau was on performance enhancing drugs against Khabib and to say that it’s likely that he was is simply a guess. It’s possible that even Khabib and most UFC fighters in general have taken steroids. All of this is speculation. What we do know is that the decision that was made by the judges that night had an immense impact on the trajectory of both fighter’s careers. With a victory over Khabib, Tibau could have fought for the title in either his next fight or soon after. Instead, he defeated Francisco Trinaldo and lost another controversial decision against Evan Dunham. Khabib on the other hand steamrolled through the lightweight division, and although it took him 7 more wins to finally get his titleshot (seemingly as much as it would have took if the decision against Tibau didn’t actually go his way), the official loss count of 0 that he preserved allowed him to cultivate a mythical status in MMA that’s a rarity in this sport. Should Khabib have been awarded the victory against Tibau? If we were purely to judge the contest by itself, probably not. A draw or a loss would have made more sense.

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